May 1st Market Report Shows Excess Supply on High End Priced Homes

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The market conditions remain similar to the beginning of April, with different price ranges in dramatically different situations. Once again we will start with the overall numbers and then break them down to derive more insight into what exactly is going on.

Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2016 relative to May 1, 2015 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 22,171 versus 21,512 last year – up 3.1% – but down 1.4% from 22,493 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB): 27,298 versus 25,837 last year – up 5.7% – but down 0.4% compared with 27,398 last month
  • Pending Listings: 7,945 versus 7,951 last year – down 0.1% – but up 5.6% from 7,522 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 13,072 versus 12,276 last year – up 6.5% – and up 5.2% from 12,427 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 8,406 versus 8,337 last year – up 0.8% – and down 0.5% from 8,445 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $140.93 versus $135.80 last year – up 3.8% – and up 1.0% from $139.52 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $222,000 versus $202,000 last year – up 9.9% – and up 3.3% from $215,000 last month

Sales volumes were similar to March and also similar to April 2015. This is the first time we have seen no annual growth for quite some time, not because sales are weakening this year, but because last years numbers strengthened a lot during the spring and comparisons are going to be more difficult from now on. Under contract counts are still up from last year which remains a sign of improving demand.

Dollar volume in April was $2.283 billion, up 3% from April 2015, with all of that coming from higher prices, since unit sales were off by 0.5%.

The most important feature of today's market is the lack of supply at the entry level and the excess supply at the top end. 

Source: Cromford Report